Welcome to the Handicapper''s Corner. This section of our website provides handicapping tips and links from experts around the country. It also includes handicapping and money management tips from "The Giss," Keith Gisser, Northfield's Publicity Director and track handicapper, as well as excerpts from various other websites. We will update articles periodically!
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Confessions Of A Public Handicapper - May 2009 by Keith Gisser
(Excerpts Reprinted by permission of The Harness Eye/Daily Racing Form)
We are currently having an interesting discussion on Internet forum that features some very astute handicappers, mostly thoroughbred guys. One particular poster mentioned he was having a crisis of confidence because he went to the local OTB, picked a couple horses, one at 5-2 and the other at 11-1. Both won, but now he is confused because he did not pull the trigger on either one. I posted the following, “I would be more concerned if I was pulling the trigger and my plays were not racing well. So, you saw two you liked and did not bet them for whatever reason. They won. Why afraid? Am I missing something?”
A poster named snottoc2000 replied, “Yes, you are. Psychologically, each 'mistake' has an impact. Doubt creeps in. When that happens...go home. When U(sic) start to feel like the racing gods are against you...they are. Tomorrow will come...I can almost guarantee it and I would certainly be willing to bet on it.”
Sorry, but I could not disagree more. I have never played the “what if” game. Money is not the only scorecard of handicapping success, although it is certainly the one we all seek. If I give a horse out publicly but do not bet him, for whatever reason—low price, other positive angles in the race, low bankroll, doubt – and he wins, I find my confidence builds, not the other way around. My handicapping has been validated.
Friday, May 8 I had a very strong night on the air at Northfield and was kidding the regulars that it was very chalky, but that there were a couple of longshots I liked late in the card (races 12 and 13). I bet a $10 early double and it paid $8, with a 7-5 and a 1-5 and that money sat in my pocket all night. I rolled on and heading into the 12th race, I had eight of eleven winners, with one top pick second. Two of my losers were beaten by horses I used in my public Pick 5 on the Smokin’ With The Giss blog (http://northfieldpark.blogspot.com/). I had given out the Pick 5, had nine winners and was feeling pretty good about things. So when Matt Kakaley and Rita’s Work of Art were sent off at almost 8-1 in the 12th, I bet. Not a lot. Just $10 to win and $10 to place. Rita raced credibly, but was no match for Mommas Gone Cruzin. She paid $4.80 to place, so I showed a small profit, but to me it, it was still good handicapping. Neither my lack of playing a bunch of chalks or my loss (although a net $$$ gain) had me thinking negatively heading into the 13th where Dan Charlino got the call on No Ordinary Smile. Now, I was up a few bucks and I thought this mare figured- she showed two competitive lines, both with “legitimate” drivers. She had been 2nd in her last start with Charlino and showed a win with Aaron Merriman driving (both at lower levels, granted). Her other drivers included Bobby Hunter, Josh Cochran and Charlie Smith, Jr., all decent horsemen, but not great drivers. She was moving up from nw$200ps to nw$250ps, but drew post 3 in a weak group—a group that if not for the non-winners of two who were combined in, I would have sworn was actually a group of nw$200ps. Charlino and No Ordianry Smile ground it out for a win and yielded $28.40 on a deuce, meaning I cashed for five times that with my $10 win ticket.
Now, I guess I could have sulked afterwards and said, “I should have bet more.” And realistically, perhaps I should have. But why would we complain about a night where we profited $140+ with four ten dollars bets.
Maybe it is the power of positive thinking, maybe it is just that I have fun when I gamble and so I don’t get stressed out about it. When I miss a horse, I look back at his lines to see why. Maybe I am not a serious enough player anymore. Or maybe, unlike the creator of that Internet forum thread, mfactor, I let some of my soccer training come into play. The first tenet or core value of Anson Dorrance’s hugely successful University of North Carolina women’s soccer teams is “We Don’t Whine.” It paraphrases the great Job Wooden, who said, “Don’t let the things you can’t control affect the things you can control,” while taking it to another level. Dorrance says not only don’t let the outside influences affect you, but don’t let the incorrect decisions you might make affect you as you move forward. And while I am quite sure you will not see Dorrance at your local OTB any time soon, it is good advice. The best gamblers do not let emotions creep in….they live with their decisions and analyze why they make the incorrect decisions when they do make them. Do you?
Now go cash. See you next month.